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The polls are open for parliamentary elections in Holland, with recent surveys suggesting that the far-right leader Geert Wilders and his PVV party could once again win the most seats, though analysts suggest the party stands little chance of being part of the future coalition.

Polling Trends and Election Dynamics

Wilders' party, which previously achieved a shock first-place finish and formed a multi-party all-conservative government that lasted barely a year, is now marginally ahead in surveys and is forecast to secure between 24 and 28 MPs in the 150-member house of representatives.

However, PVV's popularity has declined since the previous election, when it won 37 parliamentary seats. All major parties have publicly ruled out forming a government with the PVV leader, and who precipitated the collapse of the outgoing coalition in the summer over disagreements concerning his controversial immigration plans.

Major Parties and Projections

At the end of a election period dominated by topics such as immigration, medical expenses, and the country's severe housing shortage, the left-leaning Green Left/Labour party alliance, led by ex-EU official Frans Timmermans, is running a close second, projected to win between 22 and 26 parliamentary seats.

Also performing well is the liberal-progressive D66, projected to increase its seat count nearly fivefold to 21 to 25 seats, while the right-leaning CDA is expected to more than double its number of MPs to between 18 and 22.

The outgoing cabinet members – which included the PVV, liberal-conservative VVD, BBB, and centrist New Social Contract (NSC) – are all forecast to lose seats, with some facing heavy losses.

Electoral System and Political Division

Under the Netherlands' electoral system, securing just 0.67% of the national vote yields a party one MP. Of the 27 parties participating in the vote – including parties for the over-50s, for youth, animal rights parties, basic income advocates, and sports parties – as many as 16 may gain entry to parliament.

This significant fragmentation ensures that no one party is ever likely to win a majority, and Holland has been governed by coalitions – typically composed of several groups in the last few administrations – for more than a century.

Post-Election Scenarios

Wilders has stated that "democracy will be dead" in the Netherlands if the his party becomes the biggest group yet is excluded from government. But, opponents and experts say that first place does not assure a role in the coalition and that any governing alliance with a parliamentary majority is democratically valid.

Although the final outcome is hard to predict and coalition talks could take several months, analysts suggest that after the most radical administration in its recent history, the future government is likely to be a broad-based coalition headed by either the moderate left or moderate right.

Election Day Details

Polling stations, including those in the miniature city Madurodam in the capital and the Anne Frank house in the capital city, opened at 7:30 AM (6.30am GMT) and will close at 9pm. A usually accurate post-voting survey is expected soon after the polls close.

After the vote, an official negotiator will explore possible coalitions that could command a majority in the legislature. Prospective coalition members will then draft a governing pact for the coming term and must undergo a vote of confidence in the house before assuming power.