War-torn Myanmar Votes in Widely Criticised Political Theater.

Election materials in Myanmar
The country's military is holding a staggered election over the next month.

The nation is holding an election in a vote widely dismissed as a sham, with major political parties dissolved, many of their leaders imprisoned and as much as half of the country unable to participate because of an ongoing civil war.

A Phased Ballot Amid War

The ruling junta is holding a staggered election nearly five years after it took control in a coup, which ignited widespread opposition and escalated into a devastating conflict.

Observers say the junta, with backing from Beijing, is attempting to validate and consolidate its power as it seeks a way out of the devastating stalemate.

"There are no conditions for the practice of the rights of free speech, assembly or peaceful protest," UN High Commissioner for Human Rights Volker Türk said.

Over two hundred people have been prosecuted for interfering with or criticising the polls under a recently enacted legislation which carries harsh penalties, including the possibility of execution.

Director Mike Tee, performer Kyaw Win Htut and comedian Ohn Daing were among the prominent figures convicted under the law, which was passed in July. They were each handed a seven-year jail term after speaking out against a film promoting the elections.

Logistical Nightmare and Pressure

Civilians are "facing pressure from all sides," Mr Türk said in a comment, pointing out that armed rebel groups have issued their own threats urging people to boycott the polls.

The military has been fighting on several fronts, against both pro-democracy fighters who oppose the coup, as well as ethnic armed organisations which have their own forces. It lost control of large parts of the country in a string of defeats, but regained territory this year after sustained aerial bombardment enabled by support from China and Russia.

All of this and the fact that large parts of the country are still under opposition control presents a massive operational hurdle for conducting an election.

A Restricted Poll

The ballot is set to take place in three rounds over the coming weeks in 274 of the country's three hundred and thirty townships, with the rest deemed too unstable. Outcomes are expected around the end of January.

There is unlikely to be any voting in up to fifty percent of the country. Even in the townships that are voting, some districts will hold elections, making it challenging to forecast a possible turnout.

Six parties, including the military-backed Union Solidarity and Development Party, are fielding candidates nationwide, while another 51 parties and non-aligned contenders will compete only at the local levels.

Approximately forty groups, including Aung San Suu Kyi's National League of Democracy, which scored decisive wins in 2015 and 2020, have been banned. Suu Kyi and a number of the party's senior figures have been jailed under charges widely condemned as fabricated, while the rest are in hiding abroad.

International Condemnation

"Through dividing the vote into phases, the junta can change their approach if the outcomes in the initial round do not go their way," noted Htin Kyaw Aye, a representative of the watchdog group Spring Sprouts.

Western governments, including the United Kingdom and the EU legislature, have dismissed the vote as a sham, while neighbouring group Asean has called for political dialogue to come before any election.

The Burmese junta has dismissed condemnation of the polls, insisting that it aims to "restore a multi-party democratic system".

"The election is being held for our nation. It is being held for the citizens of Myanmar. It is not intended for the international community," a military representative told a briefing last week.

Junta chief Min Aung Hlaing warned earlier this week that those who choose not to participate are turning their back on "progress toward democracy".

Sherry Roth
Sherry Roth

Energy economist with over a decade of experience in market analysis and sustainable power solutions.